Shifting housing market power: Where buyers just gained the edge

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Home sellers in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern California have the most power, while homebuyers in Florida and Texas have the most power.

That’s according to a survey of resale real estate agents in July 2024 by John Burns Research and Consulting.

Active inventory for sale across much of the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern California remains well below 2019 pre-pandemic levels, while active inventory in pockets of the Sun Belt—particularly in states like Texas and Florida—and the Mountain West has jumped above pre-pandemic levels.

One factor driving the bifurcation is that some pockets of the Sun Belt and Mountain West experienced even greater home price growth during the pandemic housing boom, which stretched fundamentals too far beyond local incomes. Once pandemic-fueled migration slowed and rates spiked, it became an issue in places like Austin.

Unlike many Sun Belt housing markets, many Northeast and Midwest markets have lower levels of homebuilding. As new supply becomes available in Southwest and Southeast markets—and builders use affordability adjustments like mortgage rate buydowns to move it—the resale market experiences an additional cooling effect. The Northeast and Midwest don’t have that same level of new supply, so resale/existing homes are pretty much the only game in town.