Florida’s condo market is passing through a home price correction, shows new data

Florida’s condo market is passing through a home price correction, shows new data

Fast Company

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Following the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, Florida passed new structural safety rules, requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs to be set aside by the end of 2024. That has led to spiking Florida HOA fee increases to cover these costs.

That additional squeeze on housing affordability, following a period of home price overheating and a mortgage rate shock, has pushed much of Florida’s coastal condo market—especially older buildings—into correction mode.

According to a ResiClub analysis, condo prices are down year-over-year in 18 of Florida’s 25 major metro markets, while single-family home prices are down year-over-year in only six of those 25 markets.

In 24 of the 25 Florida markets, the year-over-year change in condo prices is weaker than the year-over-year change in single-family home prices.

Here’s a deep dive look at recent shifts in condo and single-family home prices across the state—and in the rest of the country.

Nationally, condo home values are up 2.4% year-over-year (YoY).

Among the 300 largest housing markets, condo values are up the most YoY in these five markets:

  1. Torrington, CT: +11.8%
  2. Hartford, CT: +11.6%
  3. Atlantic City, NJ: +11.3%
  4. Norwich, CT: +10.9%
  5. New Haven, CT: +10.5%

Over the same period of time, condo values have fallen the most in these housing markets:

  1. Lafayette, LA: -9.1%
  2. Clarksville, TN: -7.6%
  3. New Orleans, LA: -7.4%
  4. Punta Gorda, FL: -7.4%
  5. Austin, TX: -6.2%

Several Florida condo markets were just outside the top five for the biggest declines, including North Port, FL (-5.8%), Cape Coral, FL (-5.5%), and Panama City, FL (-4.9%).

Nationally, single-family home values are up +3.5% year-over-year.

Among the 300 largest markets, single-family home values rose the most in these areas:

  1. San Jose, CA: +12.2%
  2. Rockford, IL: +11.6%
  3. Syracuse, NY: +11.4%
  4. Hartford, CT: +10.2%
  5. San Diego, CA: +10.0%

And here’s where single-family home values have fallen the most year-over-year:

  1. New Orleans, LA: -5.8%
  2. Lake Charles, LA: -4.7%
  3. Punta Gorda, FL: -4.4%
  4. Austin, TX: -4.4%
  5. Alexandria, LA: -4.3%

Big picture: U.S. single-family home prices (up 3.5% year-over-year) have outperformed condo prices (up 2.4% year-over-year) by a bit over the past year—and it isn’t just Florida.

Just look at this interactive scatter plot we made below.

Notice there’s not even one major market that has both rising condo prices and falling single-family home prices. However, there are several markets that have both falling condo prices and rising single-family home prices.

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