Scotiabank News & Analysis

The US Dollar (USD) started off December pretty much like it finished November—on the up—despite typically unfavourable trends for the USD overall in the December month, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is modestly higher on the session, tracking its G10 peers for the most part.

The Euro (EUR) is moderately higher on the session, with gains retesting recent peaks around 1.0540 before easing, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Spot is little changed on the day as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) consolidates.

The US Dollar (USD) retains something of a softer undertone as the postelection rally ebbs a little (and continues to closely track the post-election pattern of trade from 2016), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The CBI’s survey of retail sales activity weakened in November, with the survey also revealing the biggest drop in retail sentiment in two years, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) has firmed a little overnight, with the Eurozone escaping the president-elect’s ire for now, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD/CAD snapped higher through the upper 1.41 area in response to Trump’s tariff comments last night but the CAD has stabilized through Asian and European to trade back around the 1.41 level, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

So much for tariff gradualism under a Treasury Sec. Bessent.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is a middling performer among the major currencies on the session, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Hopes that a Treasury Secretary Bessent could curb a more aggressive approach to trade policies in the Trump administration has allowed the Euro (EUR) to outperform on the session so far, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is up the least against the USD among the G10 currencies so far today, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is starting off Thanksgiving week on the defensive as markets react to the President-elect Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

UK data reports today were roundly disappointing, weighing on the Pound Sterling (GBP).

USD/CAD got caught in the crossfire of the hefty US Dollar (USD) advance against the European currencies earlier, rising quickly from the mid/upper 1.39s to an intraday high near 1.4020.

The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week on a strong note. The DXY raced to a new, two-year high overnight in response to weak European data but has conceded a lot of those gains ahead of North American trading, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osb…

UK government borrowing (GBP17.4bn) rose well ahead of expectations in October while the CBI’s latest industrial trends survey suggested some moderate improvement in orders for UK manufacturing, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) is trading softly on the session, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session.

The US Dollar (USD) is mixed to somewhat firmer on the day.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has slipped back somewhat after gains met resistance in the mid-1.3950 area, as expected, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

European Central Bank (ECB) data showed that negotiated wage growth picked up to 5.4% in Q3, from 3.5% in Q2, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Steadier sentiment across risk assets prevails this morning, allowing gains in global stocks and a broader rebound in the US Dollar (USD) after a few days of mild losses, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

BoE MPC’s Greene sounded cautious on the near-term outlook for policy in remarks yesterday, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Final Eurozone CPI for October was confirmed at 0.3% M/M and 2.0% in the year.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) had a mildly better day yesterday to advance to the low 1.40s after peaking just above 1.41.

The US Dollar (USD) drifted a little lower in quiet trade to start the week yesterday but scope for significant USD losses is limited currently, not least because the rise in US term rates remains hugely USD-supportive, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist…

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is flat on the session, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed to start the week.

The US Dollar (USD) is consolidating in quieter trade at the start of the week.

This morning’s round of UK data was broadly weaker than forecast—Industrial Production fell 0.5% in September as manufacturing slumped, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The European Commission’s economic outlook anticipates a pick up in the region’s economy this year and next as consumer demand and business investment pick up, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has edged marginally higher versus a generally softer USD on the session.

The US Dollar’s (USD) sharp, post-election advance has moderated a little today, reflecting some drift in US short rates and perhaps some consolidation in USD-bullish positioning, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Scotiabank lifted their price target on shares of Agios Pharmaceuticals from $51.00 to $53.00 and gave the stock a “sector outperform” rating in a report on Friday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading marginally higher while Gilts remain soft (but off earlier lows) in the wake of Wednesday’s budget, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR/USD has drifted a little lower over the course of the session so far, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher ahead of the US jobs data at 8.30ET.

The UK budget update largely conformed to expectations. The government will raise taxes and borrowing significantly but will also spend heavily on priority projects, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Eurozone CPI rose 2.0% this month, according to the preliminary estimate released earlier.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly softer on the session amid weak risk appetite but it is at least holding recent ranges, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The risk mood has spilled over into FX where high beta currencies are underperforming somewhat while the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) are leading gains among the majors, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

It’s month-end and there is a clear whiff of risk aversion across (most) markets this morning.

Scotiabank boosted their price target on shares of iA Financial from C$110.00 to C$126.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Wednesday.

Scotiabank raised their price target on Brookfield from $51.25 to $65.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Wednesday.

Scotiabank raised their target price on shares of Brookfield Asset Management from $45.50 to $55.50 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Wednesday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading a little softer ahead of Chancellor Reeves’ first budget (8.30ET) for Labour.

The Pound Sterling (GDP) data reports for Q3 from France, Spain and Germany all beat expectations, lifting preliminary Eurozone growth to 0.4% in the quarter, double expectations, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Near-term prospects for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are little changed, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.