4 days 28 housing markets where home prices are actually falling Fast Company

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter.

National home prices are up 2.3% year-over-year between November 2023 and November 2024, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. While that marks a deceleration—back in March 2024 that year-over-year national home price growth rate was 4.6%—it also marks the 13th straight calendar year that national home prices are up.

However, not every housing market saw rising home prices in 2024.

Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, 28 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis heading into 2025.

While home prices are still rising in tight inventory markets in places like most of the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern California, some regional housing markets in states such as Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, where inventory has risen above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, are experiencing mild home price corrections.

That includes major metros like Austin (-3.4%); San Antonio, Texas (-2.4%); Tampa (-1.9%); New Orleans (-1.9%); Jacksonville (-0.7%); Dallas (-0.5%); and Phoenix (-0.4%).

Many of the softest housing markets, where homebuyers have gained leverage, are located in Sun Belt regions of the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. These areas were home to many of the nation’s top pandemic boomtowns, which experienced significant home price growth during the pandemic housing boom, which stretched housing affordability far beyond local income levels. When pandemic-fueled migration slowed and mortgage rates spiked, markets like Cape Coral, Florida, and Austin, Texas, faced challenges as they had to rely on local incomes to sustain bubbly home prices.

The housing market softening in these areas was further accelerated by the abundance of new home supply in the pipeline across the Sun Belt. Builders in these regions are often willing to reduce prices or make affordability adjustments to maintain sales. These adjustments in the new construction market also create a cooling effect on the resale market, as some buyers who might have opted for an existing home shift their focus to new homes where deals are still available.

Will this softening carry over into 2025?

When it comes to asset prices, in particular home prices, it can be hard to judge when markets have actually peaked and when they’ve bottomed. Economists at Zillow expect many of the softer 2024 housing markets to tighten up in 2025, while Moody’s expects continued softening in most of those markets.

The key factor to watch will be active inventory for sale. If weaker housing markets like Austin and Tampa continue to experience significant increases in active inventory—which has already risen above pre-pandemic levels in those areas—it could indicate further softening in those markets, creating opportunities for homebuyers.

·